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Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis


Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

9423.69 RUR

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Melanie Jasper Professional Development, Reflection and Decision-Making in Nursing Healthcare


This essential text brings together in one place the inextricably linked concepts of professional development, reflective practice and decision-making. Fully updated and revised throughout, the new edition of this easy-to-follow, jargon-free title is targeted at nursing and healthcare practitioners and nursing students, providing clear guidance to help the reader think critically about their practice, work within professional boundaries, be accountable for their actions, and plan for their future.

3116.01 RUR

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Ken Langdon Smart Things to Know About Decision Making


Decision trees or backing a hunch – smart advice on the art and science of decision making.

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Dawna Jones Decision Making For Dummies


Discover the best approaches for making business decisions Today's business leaders have to face the facts—you can't separate leadership from decision making. The importance of making decisions, no matter how big or small, cannot be overstated. Decision Making For Dummies is a candid resource that helps leaders understand the impact of their choices, not only on business, but also on their credibility and reputation. Designed for managers, business owners, and anyone else who makes tough decisions on a daily basis, this guide helps you figure out if the decisions you're making are the right ones. In addition to helping you explore how to evaluate your choices, Decision Making For Dummies covers ways to receive support for decision making, delves into various decision-making styles, reviews the importance of sifting through data and information, and includes information on ways to engage others and make decisions collectively. Being in charge can be challenging, but with this guide, you don't have to go it alone. Discusses the effects of decision making and outlines the considerations that must be made to gain trust and confidence Demonstrates ways to communicate particularly sensitive decisions, and offers approaches for making bold decisions that challenge the status quo Delves into the risks and benefits of certain decisions, and shows readers the best ways to evaluate choices Outlines smart strategies for engaging others and drawing them into the decision-making process Crucial decisions need to be made every day in the business world, so there's no time to waste. Make Decision Making For Dummies your primary resource for learning to choose your actions wisely and confidently.

1712.61 RUR

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Pascale Zarate Tools for Collaborative Decision-Making


Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called “collaborative decision-making”, at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several of which are described in order to calculate or simulate solutions or global solutions for decision-making modification. Definitions and new trends for these models are given, along with types of systems. Contents 1. Alteration of Decision-Making Processes in Organizations. 2. New Decision-Making Processes. 3. The Need to Cooperate. 4. Cooperative Decision-Making. 5. Activity Support Systems. 6. Cooperative Decision Support Systems: CDSSS. About the Authors Pascale Zaraté is Professor at Toulouse 1 Capitole University, France. She conducts her research at the IRIT Laboratory and is the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Decision Support Systems Technologies. She is co-chair of the European Working Group on DSS and has published several studies and books.

5558.54 RUR

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Eric Johnson R. Handbook of Decision Analysis


A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

11960.65 RUR

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Jeffrey Herrmann W. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management


IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.

8625.26 RUR

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Michael Doumpos Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence. Links, Theory Applications


Presents recent advances in both models and systems for intelligent decision making. Organisations often face complex decisions requiring the assessment of large amounts of data. In recent years Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied with considerable success to support decision making in a wide range of complex real-world problems. The integration of MCDA and AI provides new capabilities relating to the structuring of complex decision problems in static and distributed environments. These include the handling of massive data sets, the modelling of ill-structured information, the construction of advanced decision models, and the development of efficient computational optimization algorithms for problem solving. This book covers a rich set of topics, including intelligent decision support technologies, data mining models for decision making, evidential reasoning, evolutionary multiobjective optimization, fuzzy modelling, as well as applications in management and engineering. Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence: Covers all of the recent advances in intelligent decision making. Includes a presentation of hybrid models and algorithms for preference modelling and optimisation problems. Provides illustrations of new intelligent technologies and architectures for decision making in static and distributed environments. Explores the general topics on preference modelling and learning, along with the coverage of the main techniques and methodologies and applications. Is written by experts in the field. This book provides an excellent reference tool for the increasing number of researchers and practitioners interested in the integration of MCDA and AI for the development of effective hybrid decision support methodologies and systems. Academics and post-graduate students in the fields of operational research, artificial intelligence and management science or decision analysis will also find this book beneficial.

8480.84 RUR

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Rudyard 1865-1936 Kipling Actions and Reactions

Jean-Charles Pomerol Decision Making and Action


Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder – everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.

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Caroline Wang Managerial Decision Making Leadership. The Essential Pocket Strategy Book


The modern manager faces a bewildering range of challenges every single day. Their ability to make critical decisions, often under pressure, can directly determine the future success of the company and their career. It is therefore surprising that so few managers take the time to learn the art of decision making. In this groundbreaking book from Caroline Wang, readers will learn that quality decision making is a competence that can be acquired according to a simple framework. The framework is practical and easy-to-remember, consisting of two acronyms: GPA and IPO. GPA for decision content quality (Goal, Priority, Alternatives); and IPO for decision process quality (Information, People, Objective reasoning). The book places emphasis on leading a team to make decisions, even though the framework can be used for personal and individual decisions. By using this common decision-making framework, managers and leaders will gain credibility and team support for the decision, will confidently articulate, promote, and defend the decision, and will have made the necessary preparations for successful implementation when the decision-making process is complete. This proven framework from one of Asia's most dynamic leadership experts will improve the quality of your decisions and change the way you do business.

2665.05 RUR

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Nutt Paul C. Handbook of Decision Making


Wiley's new Handbook of Decision Making is a vital reference text for all students and professionals of management, organization and decision making. The handbook offers a wide range of theoretical and empirical approaches to the understanding of organizational and strategic decisions. Contributors are internationally known experts drawn from North America, Canada and Europe who have spent many years in the study of decision making, and decision making relevant topics. We believe the handbook will become a tour de force in the understanding decision making, offering a wide variety of perspectives, topics, and summative understanding of the field. Chapters in the Handbook were prepared by the leading experts in their field and include cutting edge empirical, theoretical, and review chapters. The chapters bring together for the first time a critical mass of writing on decision making as an organizational and research activity. The Editors are two of the leading international experts in decision making and contribute to the Handbook with five original Chapters that offer an appraisal of the field and suggestions for research, as well as the current status of decision making practice and suggestion for improvement.

9137.32 RUR

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Jozo Dujmović Soft Computing Evaluation Logic. The LSP Decision Method and Its Applications


A novel approach to decision engineering, with a verified framework for modeling human reasoning Soft Computing Evaluation Logic provides an in-depth examination of evaluation decision problems and presents comprehensive guidance toward the use of the Logic Scoring of Preference (LSP) method in modeling complex decision criteria. Fully aligned with current developments in computational intelligence, the discussion covers the design and use of LSP criteria for evaluation and comparison in diverse areas, such as search engines, medical conditions, real estate, space management, habitat mitigation projects in ecology, and land use and residential development suitability maps, with versatile transfer to other similar decision-modeling contexts. Human decision making is rife with fuzziness, imprecision, uncertainty, and half-truths—yet humans make evaluation decisions every day. In this book, such decision processes are observed, analyzed, and modeled. The result is graded logic, a soft computing mathematical infrastructure that provides both formal logic and semantic generalizations of classical Boolean logic. Graded logic is used for logic aggregation in the context of evaluation models consistent with observable properties of human reasoning. The LSP method, based on graded logic and logic aggregation, is a vital component of an industrial-strength decision engineering framework. Thus, the book: Provides detailed theoretical background for graded logic Provides a theory of logic aggregators Explains the LSP method for designing complex evaluation criteria and their use Shows techniques for evaluation, comparison, and selection of complex systems, as well as the cost/suitability analysis, optimization, sensitivity analysis, tradeoff analysis, and missingness-tolerant aggregation Includes a survey of available LSP software tools, including ISEE, ANSY and LSP.NT. With quantitative modeling of human reasoning, novel approaches to modeling decision criteria, and a verified decision engineering framework applicable to a broad array of applications, this book is an invaluable resource for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners working within the decision engineering realm.

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James Taylor Knowledge Automation. How to Implement Decision Management in Business Processes


A proven decision management methodology for increased profits and lowered risks Knowledge Automation: How to Implement Decision Management in Business Processes describes a simple but comprehensive methodology for decision management projects, which use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions. It includes Decision Requirements Analysis (DRA), a new method for taking the crucial first step in any IT project to implement decision management: defining a set of business decisions and identifying all the information—business knowledge and data—required to make those decisions. Describes all the stages in automating business processes, from business process modeling down to the implementation of decision services Addresses how to use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions Proposes a simple «top-down» method for defining decision requirements and representing them in a single diagram Shows how clear requirements can allow decision management projects to be run with reduced risk and increased profit Nontechnical and accessible, Knowledge Automation reveals how DRA is destined to become a standard technique in the business analysis and project management toolbox.

4124.48 RUR

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John Silvia E. Dynamic Economic Decision Making. Strategies for Financial Risk, Capital Markets, and Monetary Policy


A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.

4441.75 RUR

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Maryse Salles Decision-Making and the Information System


The purpose of this book is to question the relationships involved in decision making and the systems designed to support it: decision support systems (DSS). The focus is on how these systems are engineered; to stop and think about the questions to be asked throughout the engineering process and, in particular, about the impact designers’ choices have on these systems.

6886.04 RUR

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Jennifer Meyer Decision Quality. Value Creation from Better Business Decisions


Add value with every decision using a simple yet powerful framework Few things are as valuable in business, and in life, as the ability to make good decisions. Can you imagine how much more rewarding your life and your business would be if every decision you made were the best it could be? Decision Quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from every decision. Dr. Carl Spetzler is a leader in the field of decision science and has worked with organizations across industries to improve their decision-making capabilities. He and his co-authors, all experienced consultants and educators in this field, show you how to frame a problem or opportunity, create a set of attractive alternatives, identify relevant uncertain information, clarify the values that are important in the decision, apply tools of analysis, and develop buy-in among stakeholders. Their straightforward approach is elegantly simple, yet practical and powerful. It can be applied to all types of decisions. Our business and our personal lives are marked by a stream of decisions. Some are small. Some are large. Some are life-altering or strategic. How well we make those decisions truly matters. This book gives you a framework and thinking tools that will help you to improve the odds of getting more of what you value from every choice. You will learn: The six requirements for decision quality, and how to apply them The difference between a good decision and a good outcome Why a decision can only be as good as the best of the available alternatives Methods for making both «significant» and strategic decisions The mental traps that undermine decision quality and how to avoid them How to deal with uncertainty—a factor in every important choice How to judge the quality of a decision at the time you're making it How organizations have benefited from building quality into their decisions. Many people are satisfied with 'good enough' when making important decisions. This book provides a method that will take you and your co-workers beyond 'good enough' to true Decision Quality.

1903.61 RUR

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J. Yates Frank Decision Management. How to Assure Better Decisions in Your Company


Why do the people in some companies continually dazzle us with their brilliant decisions while those in others make one blunder after another? Do they understand their businesses better? Are they just plain smarter? Or is it all a matter of luck? The answer, says J. Frank Yates, is none of the above. The real key, rarely recognized, is how the leaders manage the company's decision processes—the leaders' decision management practices. Drawing on his thirty years of research and experience as well as scholarship from psychology, economics, statistics, strategy, medicine, and other fields to explain the fundamental nature of business decision problems, Yates highlights the ten cardinal decision issues crucial to managing the decision-making process—and ultimately better company decisions. He covers problems ranging from recognizing whether a decision is actually called for to assuring that a preferred course of action will be implemented. He shows how solid decisions result when managers ensure that deciders resolve every cardinal issue effectively for every decision problem facing the company. He also reveals how, conversely, chronically poor decisions are traceable to managers allowing—or even creating—conditions that encourage deciders to fall short in how they address at least one of those critical issues.

3350.35 RUR

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Parag Kulkarni Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning for Decision Making


Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning for Decision Making There are always difficulties in making machines that learn from experience. Complete information is not always available—or it becomes available in bits and pieces over a period of time. With respect to systemic learning, there is a need to understand the impact of decisions and actions on a system over that period of time. This book takes a holistic approach to addressing that need and presents a new paradigm—creating new learning applications and, ultimately, more intelligent machines. The first book of its kind in this new and growing field, Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning for Decision Making focuses on the specialized research area of machine learning and systemic machine learning. It addresses reinforcement learning and its applications, incremental machine learning, repetitive failure-correction mechanisms, and multiperspective decision making. Chapters include: Introduction to Reinforcement and Systemic Machine Learning Fundamentals of Whole-System, Systemic, and Multiperspective Machine Learning Systemic Machine Learning and Model Inference and Information Integration Adaptive Learning Incremental Learning and Knowledge Representation Knowledge Augmentation: A Machine Learning Perspective Building a Learning System With the potential of this paradigm to become one of the more utilized in its field, professionals in the area of machine and systemic learning will find this book to be a valuable resource.

9670.33 RUR

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Itzhak Gilboa Making Better Decisions. Decision Theory in Practice


Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques Includes a web resource for teachers and students

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Carlo D'Este Decision in Normandy

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Douglas Owens K. Medical Decision Making


Medical Decision Making provides clinicians with a powerful framework for helping patients make decisions that increase the likelihood that they will have the outcomes that are most consistent with their preferences. This new edition provides a thorough understanding of the key decision making infrastructure of clinical practice and explains the principles of medical decision making both for individual patients and the wider health care arena. It shows how to make the best clinical decisions based on the available evidence and how to use clinical guidelines and decision support systems in electronic medical records to shape practice guidelines and policies. Medical Decision Making is a valuable resource for all experienced and learning clinicians who wish to fully understand and apply decision modelling, enhance their practice and improve patient outcomes. “There is little doubt that in the future many clinical analyses will be based on the methods described in Medical Decision Making, and the book provides a basis for a critical appraisal of such policies.” – Jerome P. Kassirer M.D., Distinguished Professor, Tufts University School of Medicine, US and Visiting Professor, Stanford Medical School, US

4635.17 RUR

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Lesca Nicolas Strategic Decisions and Weak Signals. Anticipation for Decision-Making


An increasing number of business executives, managers and political leaders are using the concept of “weak signals” nowadays. There are also an increasing number of people trying to find out exactly what this concept means, as well as when and how to use it. Such questions arise particularly when it comes down to making strategic decisions. To help with these questions, this book defines the concept of the “weak signal” and then demonstrates how it would be useful in relation to strategic decisions, and more precisely in relation to three moments of the strategic decision, i.e.: – The trigger of the strategic decision (what is the trigger, why and when) – The development of the strategic decision – The implementation of the strategic decision

6167.69 RUR

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Wharton E. The Valley of Decision

Gregory Parnell S. Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management


Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management is a comprehensive textbook that provides a logical process and analytical techniques for fact-based decision making for the most challenging systems problems. Grounded in systems thinking and based on sound systems engineering principles, the systems decisions process (SDP) leverages multiple objective decision analysis, multiple attribute value theory, and value-focused thinking to define the problem, measure stakeholder value, design creative solutions, explore the decision trade off space in the presence of uncertainty, and structure successful solution implementation. In addition to classical systems engineering problems, this approach has been successfully applied to a wide range of challenges including personnel recruiting, retention, and management; strategic policy analysis; facilities design and management; resource allocation; information assurance; security systems design; and other settings whose structure can be conceptualized as a system.

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